Category Archives: The Presidency

Don’t like the president’s “power grab” on ISIS? Blame Congress.

Pundits on both sides of the aisle are criticizing the Obama administration’s decision to bomb ISIS targets without seeking congressional approval.  For example, Andrew Sullivan compares Obama’s actions to those of his predecessor, George Bush, calling the president’s decision a … Continue reading

Posted in American Political Development, Legislative Politics, Separation of Powers, The Presidency | Leave a comment

Quantifying Bill’s Value to Hillary’s Campaign (Part 2)

In a recent post, I explored whether it’s possible to quantify Bill’s value to Hillary Clinton’s campaign (see here).  In other words: Do voters reward (and punish) Hillary Clinton based on their opinions of her husband?  If so, it could … Continue reading

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Quantifying Bill’s Value to Hillary’s Campaign (Part I)

In presidential elections, relationships matter.  For example, political scientists know that the relationship between economic conditions, the number of causalities in war, and the incumbent’s party affiliation explain the bulk of presidential election outcomes. In the 2016 presidential election, however, … Continue reading

Posted in Political Behavior, The Presidency | 2 Comments

The State of the Union: Putting First Things First

State of the Unions.  What are they good for?  Absolutely nothing. Ok “absolutely nothing” is an oversimplification.  But as best political scientists are able to discern, presidential speeches in general—like last night’s State of the Union—have little independent effect on … Continue reading

Posted in Legislative Politics, Policy Agendas, Political Behavior, Separation of Powers, The Presidency | 1 Comment

Google Politics: “Register to Vote”

This from Google Politics today on the Twitters: Here are some additional data from Google Trends for you to chew on.  Thoughts on the relevance or irrelevance of these data are welcome. The chart below reports the search volume for “register to vote” over the … Continue reading

Posted in Elections, The Presidency, Voting Behavior | 3 Comments

Paul Ryan “Worked With Democrats as Often as Any Republican.”

The effort to define Paul Ryan is in full swing.  While most political observers are well aware of Ryan’s record, prior to his VP selection fully 43% of Americans reported having never heard of him.  So how should we define … Continue reading

Posted in Elections, Legislative Politics, Polarization, Political Parties, The Presidency | 1 Comment

The Veepstakes: What’s the Electoral Value of a Vice President?

A few hours ago, Mitt Romney announced Wisconsin representative Paul Ryan as his running mate.  It seems obvious that in picking Ryan, Romney is trying to solidify his position with fiscal conservatives and doubling down on the economy.  Personally, I think it’s … Continue reading

Posted in Elections, Electoral Institutions, Political Behavior, The Presidency | Leave a comment