Category Archives: Primaries

Should Ron Paul “Pray for Rain” on the 3rd?

A common elections adage is that Republican candidates should “pray for rain” on election day.  The logic is that rain suppresses voter turnout among unlikely voters (who, in turn, disproportionately identify as Democrats).  The other day Mike Huckabee extended this logic to … Continue reading

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Does Iowa Matter?

In the mist of an extremely long presidential primary and campaign – as long or longer than I can remember – conversations always reach this question: “Who cares about Iowa?” Obviously campaign fatigue has already hit 10 months out from … Continue reading

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Dodging the Ryan Budget: Republican Schadenfreude

Politico notes that the Ryan budget is quickly becoming a litmus test for Republicans.  The trick, David Catanese argues, is catering to conservative primary voters while dodging the unpopular Ryan budget for the general election. Across the Senate election map, in … Continue reading

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Visualizing Mitt Romney’s 2007 and 2011 Presidential Announcements

Here are two word clouds of Mitt Romney’s 2007 and 2011 presidential announcements (I used  The returns were limited to the 20 most frequently used words with “common” English words removed.  I also condensed “America” and “American.”  First,  Mitt’s 2007 … Continue reading

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“Mitch-slapped GOP,” Really?

Politico, an organization I have a lot of respect for, and one of the webpages I read daily, posted an article about 30 minutes ago on Mitch Daniels’ (the Indiana governor) decision not to run for president. First, I’m not sure … Continue reading

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Let’s Pump the Brakes a Little Bit

Getting caught up in the media cycle is natural, even unavoidable. Despite the fact that many news stories are hardly “news worthy,” we can’t help but follow it. We ignore the fact that it has little real meaning. It won’t … Continue reading

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Legislative Polarization and the Effect of Primaries

One of the most interesting papers presented at APSA (of the panels that I attended) addressed the role that political primary types have on inducing legislative polarization.  Eric McGhee, Seth Masket (who writes on Enik Rising), Boris Shor and Nolan … Continue reading

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